Shot Selection Quality Estimator
Combines your FG% from a zone (from the Shot Zone tool) with game-state modifiers — defender distance, shot clock, game clock, recent streak — to estimate the expected points of a given shot attempt. This is a teaching tool, not a replacement for film.
0–0.5m = tightly contested. 1.5m = normal. 2.5m+ = wide open.
Shot quality
Enter inputs to see results.
The expected-points model
The base model: expected points = adjusted FG% × shot value.
Adjustments stack multiplicatively:
Adjusted FG% = Base FG% × Defender Multiplier × Shot Clock Multiplier
× Game Situation Multiplier × Streak Multiplier
Expected Points = Adjusted FG% × (2 or 3, or 1 for FT)
Defender distance multiplier. Roughly based on NBA tracking data: 0.5m = 0.85×, 1m = 0.92×, 1.5m = 1.0×, 2m = 1.06×, 3m+ = 1.10×. A defender 3m+ away boosts your effective FG% by ~10%.
Shot clock multiplier. Late-clock shots are rushed shots. NBA data shows FG% drops 8% in the last 4 seconds and 20% on buzzer-beaters.
Game situation. Down 1–9 situations shift shot selection toward 3PT, even if the team's raw 3PT% is mediocre. The multiplier captures this by suppressing 2PT selection slightly.
Streak. Hot-hand research is mixed (some studies show no effect, others show ~5–10% lift on 3 makes in a row). We use the conservative middle. Don't overweight streak.
FAQ
Is this the same as eFG%? No. eFG% is the actual efficiency of shots taken. This tool predicts the expected value of a shot before it's taken. Different question.
My numbers are different from NBA averages. Why? Most amateur players have lower base FG%s. Adjust your inputs to your own data, not league averages. The Shot Zone Heatmap tool on the Tactics page is built for exactly this.
Should I use this to argue with my coach? Carefully. The numbers are reasonable but the inputs are subjective. Coaches are right to weigh intangibles the model can't capture.
Court Coverage Estimator
Estimates the court area you "cover" defensively per minute, by position, team defensive system, and substitutions. Returns m²/min, m²/game, and a comparison to position norms.
Coverage profile
Set inputs above.
How "court coverage" is defined here
Coverage in this tool = m² of the defensive half-court that a defender's responsibility crosses per minute. It's not "how much ground you covered" — it's "how much of the court you had to defend".
The baseline numbers. Half-court area is ~210 m². Position-based responsibility shares:
- Guard: ~55% of half-court area
- Wing: ~50%
- Forward: ~45%
- Big: ~40%
These are rough — actual responsibility varies with matchup and system. Press coverage expands the area by ~30–40%.
Why intensity matters. A passive defender can be in the right area but not contesting. A 10/10 defender forces the ball-handler to commit earlier. We multiply coverage area by intensity to capture both positioning and engagement.
Stint pattern effect. Long stints = more accumulated coverage. Short bursts = less per-stint, but lower fatigue allowing higher intensity. The tool outputs both coverage and effective intensity.
FAQ
Is this the same as defensive rating? No. Defensive rating requires opponent data. Coverage is a self-measure — what YOU did. Use it to track your own defensive effort over a season.
How often should I check? Monthly. Trends matter more than single games.
I'm a guard covering 130 m²/game. Is that good? Above average. Compare to your own previous games, not league averages.
Per-Game Travel Distance Estimator
Estimates how many meters/kilometers you run during a single game, based on position, minutes, team pace, and substitutions. Uses sport-science speed/distance norms from tracking studies.
Per-game distance
Set inputs above.
Where these numbers come from
Per-minute distance by position (from NBA SportVU tracking studies, scaled for amateur pace):
- Point guard: ~140 m/min
- Combo guard: ~125 m/min
- Wing: ~115 m/min
- Forward: ~105 m/min
- Big: ~90 m/min
Pace adjustment. Each +1 possession per 48 min adds ~0.3% distance. A 110-possession game generates ~4% more distance than a 96-possession game.
Speed profile. Sprint-heavy players cover more distance per minute because sprints are higher peak velocity. The slider multiplies the per-minute distance by 0.95–1.10.
Why this is an estimate. Tracking data is the only true source. Without GPS or SportVU, you're estimating. The tool's accuracy is probably ±15% for individual games but tracks trends well across a season.
FAQ
My Catapult GPS says I ran 5.2 km. Tool says 4.1 km. Why? GPS includes all movement including bench time, dead-ball movement, and post-play motion. The tool estimates only active court movement.
Does distance vary by game quarter? Yes — 4th quarter typically shows ~10% drop in distance vs 1st quarter due to fatigue. The tool averages across the game.
How does this help my training? Compare across games. If your distance is dropping over a season while pace stays the same, conditioning is the bottleneck.
How these three tools fit
Analytics turns subjective impressions into defensible numbers. These three tools don't replace film — they help you decide what film to watch.
- Shot Selection Estimator helps you argue about shot quality with data, not feelings.
- Court Coverage is your own defensive effort scoreboard. Track it monthly.
- Travel Distance is your conditioning dashboard. If distance drops while your minutes stay constant, you've found a fitness gap.
All three tools are designed to be used with the rest of Hoop Lab. The numbers they produce are inputs to the Training Planner and the Performance Profile — not standalone conclusions.